recent posts

Android Crapware

Oh shit: 360-474-3926 Calls Are From Mitt Romney!

Dial 360-474-3926 for assmunch

Well that was instantaneous...

3 Straight Calls from 360-474-3926

Phone Spam: 714-782-9243

Phone Spam: 253-246-8515

Phone Spam: 856-229-9062

Phone Spam: 630-995-4457

Phone Spam: 508-475-1968

archives

May 2014

May 2012

February 2012

November 2011

September 2011

August 2011

July 2011

June 2011

May 2011

March 2011

February 2011

January 2011

December 2010

November 2010

October 2010

September 2010

August 2010

July 2010

June 2010

May 2010

April 2010

March 2010

February 2010

January 2010

October 2009

September 2009

June 2009

April 2009

February 2009

January 2009

December 2008

November 2008

October 2008

September 2008

August 2008

July 2008

May 2008

March 2008

February 2008

January 2008

December 2007

November 2007

October 2007

September 2007

August 2007

July 2007

June 2007

May 2007

April 2007

March 2007

January 2007

December 2006

October 2006

September 2006

August 2006

July 2006

June 2006

May 2006

April 2006

March 2006

February 2006

January 2006

December 2005

November 2005

October 2005

September 2005

August 2005

July 2005

June 2005

May 2005

April 2005

March 2005

February 2005

January 2005

December 2004

November 2004

October 2004

September 2004

August 2004

July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

April 2004

March 2004

February 2004

January 2004

December 2003

November 2003

October 2003

September 2003

August 2003

Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Thought Bubbles on Housing Bubble
Some links I found browsing today:

A Running Archive of Topical Links (patrick.net)

Patrick also suggests shorting Fannie Mae -- they make an obvious target for betting against real estate prices.

Is It Time to Cash Out? (Fortune Magazine)

It point out another bubble warning sign:

While home prices are dangerously high in hot markets, rents are generally a screaming bargain. The disconnect between prices and rents carries two strong messages, especially for folks planning to retire in a few years. First, prices can?t keep soaring while rents stay flat. The rent?what you?d pay to live in the house?is the fundamental factor driving its value, just as earnings growth guides stock prices. Booming prices and depressed rents are an unstable, unsustainable combination, a flashing red alert that we?re in a bubble. Second, you can grab a peak or near-peak price on your house, then rent a similar one for as little as half the cost of owning it (even after factoring in the tax benefits of ownership).


Trying to find historical correlations between interest rates and housing prices. This site argues against correlation. What about between rents and housing prices? Look for California Association of Realtors data. [Google search]
Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Blogger Bloat
Notice Blogger is now inserting the following little tag in the body of their posts:

<div class="post-body">
<p><div style="clear:both;"></div>
...
</div>

You can see the results.
Norton Anti-Virus - Fired!
I sent the following email to Symantec support after problems installing an update for the anti-virus software I had just paid $30 for:

Upgrading to NAV 2005 is amazingly frustrating.

1. It could be a lot more seamlessly integrated with my current
installation.

2. It's painfully slow at 20kb/s

3. I've downloaded it twice and both times when I try to install, I get
an error saying that there are corrupt files and I need to reinstall.

I've wasted over an hour on this now. What I would like to do is cancel
my upgrade, refund the $5 difference, and simply renew the subscription
on my existing version. If you cannot do that, please cancel my order
altogether and I'll find another service.

Thanks,
Tomo


This is the response I got:

Subject: Your message has been received! (KMM22703545V38705L0KM)

**************Please do not reply to this message!**************
***************Replies are automatically deleted!***************

Hello,

This email is confirming your message was received by the online store's
Customer Care Center. However, due to possible objectionable language or
material, the message was automatically removed from our system. If you
feel this was done in error, we apologize.

Please re-send your message without the possible objectionable language
or materials at your earliest convenience. We will then be able to
assist you with your issue.

Sincerely,

Customer Care Center
Case ID 9858774

**************Please do not reply to this message!**************
***************Replies are automatically deleted!***************


I suppose it would be the word "cancel" they found objectionable.

This doesn't inspire a lot of faith in their ability to protect my computer.
Tuesday, June 21, 2005
If you turn to page 7 of this week's Circuit City Sunday flyer, you will see a great deal on a nice HP notebook. I'm in the market for a notebook and this is just what I'm looking for. But when I called three different Circuit Cities, I got three different excuses as to why it's not in stock. The most credible was that it's a special "build it your way" model that you have to order in the store and then wait 30 days and then it's availability was subject to stock.

It sounds like this notebook is such a great deal because it doesn't actually exist. If that's the case, that's sleazy, if not criminal.
Overview from a conference being held today at UCLA:

The current level of hype about real estate bears a worrisome resemblance to the dot.com bubble of the late nineties. Financial companies tout no-money-down interest-only loans as a way of extending speculators' purchasing power, and developers pitch new developments to buyers the way Wall Street analysts used to pitch new IPOs. According to the National Association of Realtors, over a third of total sales in 2004 were to families buying a second home--most for 'investment' purposes.

While housing activity levels are still high from a historical perspective, there are signs that the market is starting to slow. Appreciation rates and sales rates have peaked, and some markets have seen a rapid increase in inventory levels. The recent Fed warning regarding inflation has sent mortgage rates up.

How long can this market last? Are we in for a soft landing or a crash? Who is likely to be left holding the bag when the smoke clears? These are the questions --among many others--about the California and National housing markets that we will attempt to answer at the Conference.
Friday, June 17, 2005
This guy may well be the greatest web designer that ever lived.
The honor tray was short $67.00 over the last three months. It got so bad, the delivery girl finally had to pull it. A dishonorable day for the office. (And the reason why vending machines were invented.)
Thursday, June 16, 2005
More conservative spin:

Studies Rebut Earlier Report on Pledges of Virginity

Challenging earlier findings, two studies from the Heritage Foundation reported yesterday that young people who took virginity pledges had lower rates of acquiring sexually transmitted diseases and engaged in fewer risky sexual behaviors.

The new findings were based on the same national survey used by earlier studies and conducted by the Department of Health and Human Services. But the authors of the new study used different methods of statistical analysis from those in an earlier one that was widely publicized, making direct comparisons difficult.

...Those who made pledges were less likely to engage in vaginal intercourse, oral sex, anal sex and sex with a prostitute, and they were less likely to become prostitutes than were adolescents who did not take such a pledge, the Heritage team said.


They may not prostitute themselves sexually, but they'll prostitute themselves.

Seriously, I would guess (and that's a little more empirical than what the Heritage Foundation researchers did) that the decision to become a prostitute is driven by factors mostly unconnected to sex education and any difference is largely arbitrary.

As for less teens having vaginal intercourse. In truth, that figure is beside the point. The more critical queston: are they more or less likely to have vaginal intercourse (or anal sex or oral sex) without a condom?
This article in the New York Times today helped clarify for me what's going on with all these exotic mortgages out there. This graphic is especially helpful in explaining the different option:

Risking Affordability

My conclusion: things aren't as precarious in the short-run as I may have hoped. One economist puts it in perspective:

Nationwide, the increase in monthly payments as more mortgage rates start to float will cost families about an extra $40 billion over the next two years, according to estimates by Credit Suisse First Boston. That is the rough equivalent of a 40-cent increase in gas prices over the same span, which would pinch incomes but would not be likely to create a recession.


It seems like most these risky, ill-advised borrowing schemes blossomed within the last couple years. And their impact doesn't hit for 4 or 5 years. But when it does, ouch. So tulip mania has another year or two probably to flourish before people start to get worried about looming changes in their mortgage payments and the tide starts to turn (and the negative feedback loop sets in.)

So where to invest? The foreclosure industry (whoever that is.) Or something that targets a market of really stressed out people that going to start to swell around the end of next year.
Monday, June 13, 2005
Jackson/Tyson
Mike Tyson's final bout should be against Michael Jackson. Justice would really be served. They could wipe out their debts. And Tyson would even have a shot at winning.
Is this the building tectonic pressure that's going to release the tidal wave? See recent CNN-online article.

Points of interest:

- 42% of people are buying houses with nothing down

- Only 10% of people are buying houses with the traditional 20% down -- most are using piggy-back loans to get to the 20% down payment. Problem? The rate on the piggy-back loan is variable (meaning they're fucked once rates start to rise if they can't sell their house, two factors which would seem to covary strongly in a market collapse). I wonder if they limit paying off the loan all at once.

- You can now get a loan where the monthly payment is less than the interest on the loan (the less-than-interest loan)!

Note to self: short lendingtree.com, invest in the foreclosure/collections/repossession sector
1. Previous Short Position: 21,965,971
2. Current Short Position: 21,235,715
3. Avg Daily Trade Volume: 8,179,829
4. Days to Cover (#2/#3): 2.69

Current Stock Price: 39.50

Source: NYSE Data

Now what does this mean? I have no idea.*
Betting on the Bubble
Despite the latest article from the Los Angeles Times offering cover for bubble rationalizers, I maintain (following the belief of some much more qualified people) that there is a real estate bubble and it's going to pop. The question is: how to put my money where my mouth is? I've decided that I'm going to make market wager by investing $1000 against the market? To do this, I need to answer three questions:

1. Is there really a housing bubble?
2. When is it going to burst?
3. How do I invest against the housing market -- that is, in such a way as to profit by any real estate market collapses or corrections? Short-selling Home Depot?

That said, this isn't really designed as a strategy to make money -- but as a way to back up my inherent cynicism with definitive action.
Sunday, June 12, 2005

"Yeah, if he doesn't perk up pretty soon, I'm just gonna flush him."
Monday, June 06, 2005
One Year from Today
Is this date next year going to be a big media circus with the new evangelical media working itself up into a frenzy over the menace of Hillary Clinton and Paul Krugman in the leadup? Kinda like L'Eclipse when I was in France summer of '99?
Sunday, June 05, 2005


"Captain's Log, Stardate 58891.8: She says she has a headache."


"Captain's Log, Stardate 58891.8: Rocked her universe tonight."
Thursday, June 02, 2005
New Yorker Caption Contest #7


"The iBrator's in the nightstand."
Wednesday, June 01, 2005