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Tuesday, March 23, 2004
It is gratifying to contemplate the economic crumble of Japan, especially when it can be described as a function of their chauvinistic and xenophobic culture. Poetic justice.
This from a friend in Japan:
Xenophobia is here to stay, and this country is fucked. End of debate.
All the money going into China that currently passes through Japan will
be siphoned and rerouted through HK (as much of it is already) which
enjoys a solid, direct pipe into the West with very little cultural
barriers to entry.
The rest of the money to China and Asia goes through Taiwan, which will
either a) get better or b) get worse, meaning more/less money through
HK.
Japan will slip, quietly but inexorably, into irrelevance.
They can only manipulate FX rates as long as their (stupendously huge)
trough of savings is plentiful, but sooner or later (later rather than
sooner) they'll being importing more than they export, and they'll slip
into even more horrendous debt than they have now. Japanese bond ratings
will plummet, the domestic market will be seen as less enticing than,
say a billion Chinese, and that, as they say, will be that.
It won't be a Big Bang, it will be a long, drawn-out whimper, that
started 15 years ago and will continue until at least 2025.
But it'll be fun to watch!
And yeah I experience at least as much discrimination on a daily basis
as a black man in Georgia. Sometimes days go by with no incident, and
then it's a strange look from a dude on a bicycle, a waitress freaking
out until I open my mouth to order in Japanese, a real estate agent's
sign that says "No foreigners"...
This from a friend in Japan:
Xenophobia is here to stay, and this country is fucked. End of debate.
All the money going into China that currently passes through Japan will
be siphoned and rerouted through HK (as much of it is already) which
enjoys a solid, direct pipe into the West with very little cultural
barriers to entry.
The rest of the money to China and Asia goes through Taiwan, which will
either a) get better or b) get worse, meaning more/less money through
HK.
Japan will slip, quietly but inexorably, into irrelevance.
They can only manipulate FX rates as long as their (stupendously huge)
trough of savings is plentiful, but sooner or later (later rather than
sooner) they'll being importing more than they export, and they'll slip
into even more horrendous debt than they have now. Japanese bond ratings
will plummet, the domestic market will be seen as less enticing than,
say a billion Chinese, and that, as they say, will be that.
It won't be a Big Bang, it will be a long, drawn-out whimper, that
started 15 years ago and will continue until at least 2025.
But it'll be fun to watch!
And yeah I experience at least as much discrimination on a daily basis
as a black man in Georgia. Sometimes days go by with no incident, and
then it's a strange look from a dude on a bicycle, a waitress freaking
out until I open my mouth to order in Japanese, a real estate agent's
sign that says "No foreigners"...
