recent posts

Really like my new Gmail account. Definitely goes...

Just received the following event announcement: ...

These things must be among the grossest creatures ...

Ok. Shit List jubilee for all those people and co...

Ok, I got the voodoo powers back online, but all t...

My carefully crafted template for this blog was ju...

Nicholas Kristof raises a good question in his col...

Continuing with the grandeur-that-was-Rome theme, ...

Remember getting this message forwarded to you aft...

Do I spot a trend in the making? Gay Lovers Cli...

archives

Tuesday, May 04, 2004
Thinking about a hand I lost on the other night. The situation:

I'm big blind with suited 2-5. There's a raise, but it's pretty small -- like 50 cents on a $10 buy-in game. Maybe the 10th hand of the game? I haven't won yet but haven't lost big either and am probably at $6 or $7. So I decide to hang around for the flop, thinking that if something does come through for me, it will be on such piss-poor cards no one will suspect I've actually got it. And what is the flop?

7(?)-2-5 (don't remember exactly the first card, but it was something crappy like that)

I figure I have it locked up. And what makes it sweeter -- the chip-leader goes all in. I figure he's got high cards, maybe even a pocket pair. I call, cards get turned up. He's got A-J. Looks good for me, except for one thing: they're hearts and the 7-2 are hearts also. He's got a flush draw. I confess I didn't even notice the hearts -- not that it would have mattered. I'd still have made the call.

Nevertheless, I figured the odds were still in my favor, so when the turn was a 9 of hearts, I felt robbed. But it occurred to me today that maybe I shouldn't have and that my hand wasn't the sure thing I took it for.

Let's see: I think there were 4 other players at this point beside me him. That's 8 hole cards we didn't see. Straight odds predict that 2 of those should be hearts. I've got no hearts, he has 2 and there are 2 on the board. That leaves 7 (13-6) for him to make his flush. Apply the 4-2 rule (at this point the 4 rule), he's got a 28% chance of drawing his flush. (What were his actual odds based on the unseen cards? 9 in 45 or 20%? Does it matter that he has two chances? This is where blind faith comes in handy for me.)

Of course, the 9 of hearts was on the table before I could begin to figure any of this out. And I still had my full-house draw (which didn't come through.) I guess I made the right call and just got shit-listed on the turn. Maybe now I can let it go.